TURKEY RANKS 84 OUT OF 177 COUNTRIES

Turkey’s HDI value in this year’s report is 0.775, which positions Turkey at 84 out of 177 countries. In last year’s Human Development Report, Turkey’s HDI value was 0.757, and Turkey ranked 92 out of 177 countries. Turkey has therefore gained 8 places in rank between last year’s report and this year.

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure for monitoring long-term progress in the average level of human development in three basic dimensions: a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living. These basic dimensions are measured by life expectancy at birth, adult literacy and combined gross enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary education, and GDP per capita measured in US Dollars at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP US$), respectively.

The HDI published in the global Human Development Report (HDR) is calculated every year based on available data from international data agencies. There is typically a two year lag between the reference year of the data and publication of HDR. Consequently, HDI values and rank in HDR 2007/2008 refer to 2005. This note addresses both the apparent change in the HDI between last year’s report (HDR 2006) and this year’s (HDR 2007/2008) as well as the real change based on the latest consistent time series of data.

Apparent Change in HDI Between Reports

Changes in the HDI values and rankings between two reports result from updates and revisions to data for each of the HDI’s three components; as well as real changes in the level of human development in different countries. For these reasons, HDI values and rankings are not comparable across editions of the HDR. The data received each year from the relevant international agencies contain values for the most recent year available, as well as updates and methodological revisions which might affect previously published data. Consequently, changes in the values and rankings of the HDI published from one year to the next may not reflect real changes in the component indicators but rather revisions to the underlying data used for the calculations – both specific to a country and relative to other countries.

In HDR 2006, Turkey ranked 92 out of 177 countries and areas with an HDI value of 0.757. This was based on 2004 data available at the time the report was being prepared. It therefore appears that Turkey has gained 8 places in rank and gained. 0.018 in value between last year’s report and this year’s (see Table A).

 

However, using the most up-to-date data series from the international data agencies, Turkey’s HDI value for 2004 should have been 0.771; this would have positioned the country at 83 if the updates had been available and were used in the last report. Thus, in fact, Turkey has dropped 1 place in rank (not gained 8 places) and its HDI value has risen by 0.004 (rather than by 0.018). The change in the HDI value resulted from updated GDP per capita (2005 constant PPP US$) and new estimates of life expectancy at birth – both of which are higher than the values used in last year’s report – and largely explain the apparent increase in the HDI value between the two reports.

 The HDI for Turkey is 0.775, which gives the country a rank of 84^th out of 177 countries with data (Table 1).

 

Figure 1: The human development index gives a more complete picture than income

This year’s HDI, which refers to 2005, highlights the very large gaps in well-being and life chances that continue to divide our increasingly interconnected world. By looking at some of the most fundamental aspects of people’s lives and opportunities it provides a much more complete picture of a country's development than other indicators, such as GDP per capita. Figure 2 illustrates that countries on the same level of HDI as Turkey can have very different levels of income.

Of the components of the HDI, only income and gross enrolment are somewhat responsive to short term policy changes. For that reason, it is important to examine changes in the human development index over time.

The human development index trends tell an important story in that aspect. Since the mid-1970s almost all regions have been progressively increasing their HDI score (Figure 2). East Asia and South Asia have accelerated progress since 1990. Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), following a catastrophic decline in the first half of the 1990s, has also recovered to the level before the reversal. The major exception is sub-Saharan Africa. Since 1990 it has stagnated, partly because of economic reversal but principally because of the catastrophic effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy.

Figure 2: HDI Trends

Longer-term trends in human development

The HDI is not designed to assess progress in human development over a short period because some of its component indicators do not respond to short-term policy changes. This is particularly so for the adult literacy rate and life expectancy at birth. As such, it is strongly recommended to compare component indicators that make up the HDI and HDI values over the medium and long-term to ascertain real changes in human development.

For example, progress in basic human development indicators for Turkey has been consistent over the past fifteen years. The country registered progress in all underlying indicators between 1990 and 2005. During this period, life expectancy at birth increased by nearly seven years, GDP per capita increased by more than one-third, and the adult literacy rate and the combined gross enrolment ratio grew by nearly 10 and 14 percentage points respectively; the cumulative effect of these changes is an improvement in the HDI value (see Table B).

 

*Please note that the figures pertaining to these years do not parallel those previously published by the
HDRO.

Before the HDI is calculated, the component indicators are converted into indices using maximum and minimum values chosen for each indicator (for more details on the calculation of the HDI refer to Technical note 1 in HDR 2007/2008). Figure 1 below shows the contribution of each component index to Turkey’s HDI since 1975.

Assessing progress in Turkey’s HDI relative to other countries

It is also useful for countries to assess long-term progress relative to their neighbours both in terms of geographical location and similar HDI value at some point. For instance, in 1990 Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon had similar HDI values. While all three countries achieved progress in HDI value between 1990 and 2005, Turkey performed slightly better than the others (see figure 2). The improvement in Turkey’s HDI value is a result of increases in all of its HDI component indicators, a sign of real and steady progress in human development.

Figure 2: Trends in HDI 1990-2005